TLT

Resilient earnings and continued AI investment have remained key supports for markets. Any pullback in profits, hyperscaler spending, or AI financing could be concerning. Read more here.

Importing economies are seeing higher borrower risk premiums and supply‑driven inflation, while exporters face demand‑driven inflation. The trade position is reshaping inflation, yields, and the risk‑return trade‑off.

Federal Reserve signals and Treasury buybacks triggered a sharp bear in the bond market. Bessent's and Warsh's messaging has not changed that dynamic.

If one group becomes wealthier, it doesn’t necessarily follow that another group becomes poorer, but to avoid that outcome, growth is necessary. Read more here.

US equity markets fell after a strong August jobs report pushed expectations of a Fed rate hike higher. The CPI report on Friday is considered more important than many realize.

Fed Funds Futures market odds for a rate hike at the September 16 meeting dropped from 70% to 50% and then rose to 59% over the week.

Recent data show a cooling economy with declining ISM manufacturing PMI and new orders. The AI expenditure impulse is expected to be temporary.

It is impossible to escape the negativity toward bonds these days. And with good reason, I suppose, since the returns from the asset class have been lousy for some time.