IEF

Resilient earnings and continued AI investment have remained key supports for markets. Any pullback in profits, hyperscaler spending, or AI financing could be concerning. Read more here.

Importing economies are seeing higher borrower risk premiums and supply‑driven inflation, while exporters face demand‑driven inflation. The trade position is reshaping inflation, yields, and the risk‑return trade‑off.

Federal Reserve signaling and Treasury buybacks triggered a sharp bear in the bond market. Bessent's and Warsh’s messaging has not changed that dynamic.

If one group becomes wealthier, it doesn’t necessarily follow that another group becomes poorer, but to avoid that outcome, growth is necessary. Read more here.

Fed Funds Futures market probability for a rate hike at the Sept 16 FOMC fell from 70% to 50% and rose to 59% over the week. This shows a near‑term Fed mistake is considered possible.

Recent data show a cooling economy with ISM manufacturing PMI and new orders declining. The AI expenditure impulse is expected to fade.

It is impossible to escape the negativity toward bonds these days. And with good reason, I suppose, since the returns from the asset class have been lousy for some time.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund may unload tens of billions of long Treasuries, raising questions for TLT holders. The ETF could be a value trap behind its coupon.