AI Chip Boom Peaking in 2028? Analyst Says That’s ‘Utterly Wrong’ As Shortage Could Last Until 2030
Key takeaways
- AI chip demand outstrips supply by 73%, with the shortage likely lasting until 2030, reshaping the competitive landscape across hardware and model developers.
- Demand for GPUs and custom AI chips exceeds supply by 73%
- Shortage expected to last until 2030
- Meta’s Muse simplifies AI agent creation
What happened
CLSA analyst Bhavtosh Vajpayee told CNBC that the AI chip shortage will last until about 2030, with demand for GPUs and custom AI chips currently outpacing supply by roughly 73%. He said the industry is still in the early stages of its AI buildout and that expectations for the AI semiconductor cycle to peak in 2028 are "utterly wrong." The analyst highlighted Meta’s Muse platform, Apple’s potential as an AI gateway, and Alibaba’s work on smaller AI models as key developments.
Why it matters
The shortage signals that upstream semiconductor and hardware companies will continue to benefit as AI infrastructure spending grows, while downstream model developers remain uncertain about future leaders. A 73% supply gap indicates significant pressure on chip manufacturers and could drive higher prices and…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Short-term traders should monitor supply chain updates from major chipmakers and watch for any signs of easing in the 73% supply gap.
Longer-term. Over the next few months, investors should assess how the prolonged shortage might affect cash flows and capital allocation for upstream semiconductor companies versus downstream AI model developers.