Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
Key takeaways
- Equity futures are slightly upbeat amid a new U.S. economic offensive against Iran, a busy earnings calendar, and a Treasury buyback that could keep long‑end yields in check.
- S&P 500 futures up 0.16%
- Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.42%
- Dow futures up 0.06%
What happened
U.S. equity futures are nudging higher as investors weigh a new U.S. economic offensive against Iran, a busy earnings calendar, and a recent Treasury buyback announcement. The Polymarket contract for an S&P 500 higher open on August 20 shows a 66% probability of a positive start. Key market indicators: S&P 500 futures up 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.42%, Dow futures up 0.06%, Russell 2000 futures up 0.24%. Brent crude is at $91.79 a barrel and WTI at $84.45 a barrel.
Why it matters
The 66% odds reflect traders’ confidence that geopolitical tension and macro data will outweigh any earnings drag. A higher open could set the tone for the day’s volatility, especially with major earnings from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, NetEase, and Ross on the docket. The Treasury buyback signals the Department’s…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Traders should watch the opening of the S&P 500 for a 0.5–1.0% move that could set the day’s trend.
Longer-term. Over the next few weeks, investors should monitor how the Treasury buyback and the 30‑year yield trend affect long‑term equity risk premiums.