SpaceX Could Be Biggest Loser From Successful Anthropic IPO, Finance Professor Warns

Key takeaways

• Anthropic’s IPO could pull capital from SpaceX’s AI segment, potentially lowering the valuation premium for Musk’s broader business, even as the partnership remains a significant revenue source.
• Anthropic could raise up to $100 billion
• Anthropic accounts for 34.5% of SpaceX’s Q3 revenue (~$5 billion)
• $120.5 billion computing agreement through 2029

What happened

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) may lose investor interest after Anthropic’s successful IPO, as the new public AI company could pull capital away from Musk’s AI ventures. Anthropic is already a major customer, accounting for 34.5% of SpaceX’s third‑quarter revenue—about $5 billion—and has a $120.5 billion computing agreement with SpaceX through 2029. The IPO could raise up to $100 billion, a small fraction of the combined market value of Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, but it would still shift…

Why it matters

The shift could reduce the premium investors are willing to pay for SpaceX’s AI ambitions, even as the company stands to benefit from Anthropic’s spending on chips and cloud services. Anthropic’s IPO would also give investors a more direct way to bet on advanced AI models, potentially drawing money away from SpaceX’s…

Short-term and longer-term

Short-term. In the coming weeks, watch for any change in SpaceX’s share price as the market digests the Anthropic IPO.

Longer-term. Over the next few months, consider how SpaceX’s revenue mix might shift if Anthropic’s IPO attracts more capital to AI models.