A Mega-Mine Pause Fails to Lift Copper As the AI Trade Cracks

Key takeaways

• Copper supply disruptions and a cooling AI demand story are keeping prices low, adding uncertainty for miners and investors.
• Oyu Tolgoi halted underground work after a fault‑zone quake
• Freeport‑McMoRan’s Grasberg mine delayed to early 2028
• Codelco audit found 26,875 tons mis‑booked

What happened

Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia halted underground work after a fault‑zone quake injured three workers. The pause follows a broader pattern of operational setbacks: Freeport‑McMoRan’s Grasberg mine is delayed until early 2028, Codelco’s audit uncovered mis‑booked output, and Cobre Panama remains closed after a constitutional ruling. Meanwhile, copper prices slipped to $14,356.50 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, below September’s $14,875 record, as earnings from Alphabet and…

Why it matters

The stoppages add to an already tight copper supply, tightening the market’s ability to meet growing demand from electrification and infrastructure. The price drop signals that the AI boom may not translate into the expected surge in copper use, affecting revenue forecasts for major miners. Investors and traders are…

Short-term and longer-term

Short-term. In the next few days, copper futures may trade in a tight range as traders digest the latest mine shutdowns and the AI earnings beat.

Longer-term. Over the next few months, the supply crunch could support copper prices if demand from electrification and infrastructure holds, but the dampened AI narrative may limit upside.