OpenAI Jumps 32%, Airtable Crashes 56% As Private Market Returns Diverge

Key takeaways

• Private‑market gains are concentrated in a few high‑profile companies, while others face sharper repricing as buyer power shifts and secondary discounts widen.
• OpenAI +32.3%
• Airtable –56.1%
• Forge Private Market Index +1.4%

What happened

OpenAI’s stock jumped 32.3% in September, while Airtable fell 56.1%, showing a sharp split in private‑market performance. The Forge Private Market Index rose 1.4% overall, but the gains were driven mainly by a few high‑profile names such as OpenAI, Anduril, and SpaceX, while others like Airtable, Postman, Kraken, and SambaNova saw steep declines. Secondary‑market discounts widened, with the median trade at a 9% discount versus a 3% discount in August, and the 90th percentile dropped from a 58%…

Why it matters

The split highlights that private‑market returns are no longer uniform; investors can earn outsized gains in a few companies while others face sharper valuation pressure. Wider secondary‑market discounts and lower buyer participation give sellers more negotiating power, potentially creating buying opportunities at…

Short-term and longer-term

Short-term. In the next few days, watch for price swings around OpenAI, Anduril, and SpaceX as the market digests the September gains.

Longer-term. Over the coming months, the split in private‑market performance will force investors to differentiate between companies that can sustain high valuations and those that may be re‑priced.