Gas Prices to Remain High Through Election, Expert Says 'It's Still Not Over'
Key takeaways
- Gasoline prices are expected to stay above $4/gal and diesel above $6/gal until a major geopolitical de‑escalation, keeping consumer fuel costs high through the midterms.
- $138.8 billion more spent on gas since March 1, 2026
- Gasoline >$4/gal, diesel >$6/gal until de‑escalation
- USO 52‑week high $168.91
What happened
Consumers have spent $138.8 billion more on gasoline since March 1, 2026, driven by the Iran war and other geopolitical tensions, according to fuel analyst Patrick De Haan. Gas prices have eased slightly from record highs in some states, but spot prices in the Great Lakes region are still climbing, with Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin at risk of further increases while Ohio is not. De Haan warns that diesel will stay above $6/gal and gasoline above $4/gal until a clear de‑escalation between…
Why it matters
High gasoline costs are a key issue heading into the 2026 midterm elections, potentially influencing voter sentiment and congressional outcomes. Rising fuel prices benefit oil producers and refineries but strain consumer budgets, prompting shifts toward discount fuel programs at retailers like Costco and Walmart. The…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. In the next few weeks, watch for any signs of geopolitical easing that could trigger a dip in oil prices and, consequently, gasoline and diesel.
Longer-term. Over the next several months, the sustained high fuel costs could support oil and refinery earnings but pressure consumer discretionary spending.