Nvidia’s China Market Has Effectively Vanished: ‘Every Restriction Also Gives Chinese Suppliers a Larger Captive Market,’ Says Shay Boloor
Key takeaways
- U.S. export controls are squeezing China’s AI chip supply but may backfire by accelerating domestic substitution and weakening U.S. chipmakers’ long‑term position.
- 13 million HBM stacks in China before controls
- 2 million HBM stacks projected from CXMT in 2026
- 250,000‑300,000 Huawei Ascend‑class chips supported by CXMT
What happened
U.S. export controls on high‑bandwidth memory and advanced semiconductor equipment are squeezing China’s ability to make next‑generation AI chips, while also pushing domestic firms to step up as alternatives. China’s stockpile of about 13 million stacks is being used up, and the country’s main memory maker, ChangXin Memory Technologies, is expected to supply roughly 2 million stacks in 2026, enough for 250,000‑300,000 Huawei Ascend‑class chips. Without access to ASML’s extreme ultraviolet…
Why it matters
The limits on HBM and lithography equipment are tightening the supply chain for AI hardware in China, a market that was projected to grow from $25.4 billion in 2025 to $95.6 billion by 2030. While the U.S. hopes to curb China’s AI progress, the move may accelerate domestic substitution, giving Chinese suppliers a…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Over the next few weeks, watch for any shifts in China’s HBM inventory levels and any new orders from domestic chipmakers.
Longer-term. In the coming months, the Chinese AI chip market is expected to grow at a 20.9 % CAGR, reaching $95.6 billion by 2030.