Dow Analyst No Longer Bearish As Earnings Stability Improves
Key takeaways
- Dow’s earnings are steadier thanks to higher petrochemical prices and productivity gains, leading BofA to lift its rating and target price.
- Dow shares up 0.50% to $29.97
- Q4 EBITDA forecast $1.454 billion vs. consensus $1.378 billion
- 2026 EBITDA raised to $6.187 billion from $6.053 billion
What happened
Dow Inc. The upgrade follows stronger petrochemical pricing, increased demand from China, and ongoing Middle East risk that supports higher crude oil prices. DeYoe highlighted that Dow’s productivity initiatives, worth over $2 billion, are delivering material traction and that the company’s EBITDA outlook for 2026 has been raised to $6.187 billion from $6.053 billion. Dow shares were up 0.50% at $29.97 when the note was released.
Why it matters
The upgrade signals that Dow’s earnings are becoming more predictable, which can reduce risk for investors and improve the company’s valuation. Higher polyethylene and ethylene chain prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, are boosting margins and supporting a stronger EBITDA forecast. The…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Over the next few days, Dow shares may test the new $31 target as traders react to the upgraded rating.
Longer-term. For the coming months, Dow’s improved earnings stability and higher EBITDA guidance suggest a more resilient business model, especially if oil prices remain elevated.