Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal May Cut Prices by Just $1-$2 Per Barrel, Says Goldman Sachs; Cover Only 10 Days of US Demand
Key takeaways
- Trump’s Russian diesel deal will barely dent U.S. fuel prices, adding only a $1–$2 per barrel lift at best.
- 4.8 million metric tons (35.76 million barrels)
- $1–$2 per barrel price lift
- 2% of U.S. demand
What happened
President Donald Trump’s proposed diesel agreement with Russia would ship 4.8 million metric tons (35.76 million barrels) of diesel in 2026, but Goldman Sachs estimates the impact on U.S. wholesale prices would be only $1–$2 per barrel.
Why it matters
The deal adds a small amount of supply—about 2 % of U.S. demand and less than 1 % of global demand—so it is unlikely to meaningfully lower fuel costs for truckers and farmers.
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. In the next few days, traders should watch for any shift in U.S.
Longer-term. Over the coming months, the deal’s modest supply boost is unlikely to alter long‑term fuel cost expectations for U.S.