Wall Street’s Favorite AI Trade Is Up 89% This Year: Its Best Season Starts Today
Key takeaways
- Semiconductor stocks are entering a historically strong season, with SOXX up 88.8% YTD and a 29.9% gain in the latest October‑to‑February stretch, while Bank of America’s top picks point to near‑term catalysts that…
- SOXX up 11.3% in September 2026
- SOXX up 88.8% YTD 2026
- October‑to‑February window average return 12.5%
What happened
The iShares Semiconductor ETF surged 11.3% in September 2026, its best September since 2001, and is up 88.8% year‑to‑date, making semiconductors the top‑performing sector in the U.S. market this year. Bank of America analysts highlighted that the October‑to‑February window has historically been the most profitable period for chip stocks, with a 29.9% gain in the most recent season (Oct 2025‑Feb 2026). The bank also named Nvidia, Intel, Micron, Marvell, and Lam Research as its top chip picks…
Why it matters
September’s strong performance breaks the usual pattern of a weak month for chip stocks, signaling a shift in seasonal dynamics that could boost investor confidence in the sector. The October‑to‑February window’s 84% success rate and 12.5% average return over 25 seasons underscore the strategic value of timing…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Short‑term traders should watch November for potential breakout opportunities, given its 5.2% average return and 76% win rate.
Longer-term. Over the long term, the October‑to‑February window’s consistent outperformance (12.5% average, 84% success rate) suggests a strategic window for building semiconductor exposure.