Strong Refining Will Drive Chevron, ExxonMobil Q3 Results: Analyst
Key takeaways
- Analysts see stronger refining margins and new production assets lifting Q3 earnings for Chevron and Exxon, prompting higher price targets.
- Chevron price target $215
- Exxon price target $180
- Chevron upstream earnings decline $1.2 billion QoQ
What happened
TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised price forecasts for Chevron (CVX) to $215 and ExxonMobil (XOM) to $180, keeping Chevron a Hold and Exxon a Buy. He cited stronger refining margins and expected free‑cash‑flow gains from new Venezuelan assets for Chevron, and robust downstream performance for Exxon despite geopolitical headwinds. Both firms are projected to beat Q3 earnings estimates, with Chevron’s upstream earnings expected to decline $1.2 billion QoQ and Exxon’s upstream earnings to…
Why it matters
The upgraded forecasts signal that analysts see a rebound in refining profitability for both majors, driven by higher margins and new production assets. Investors are watching how the timing headwinds—$1.50‑per‑share for Chevron and $2 billion for Exxon—will affect reported earnings and cash flow. The guidance also…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Short‑term traders should monitor the Q3 earnings releases for both majors, as the upgraded price targets suggest a potential upside if the timing headwinds are less severe than projected.
Longer-term. Over the next few months, investors should focus on how the new Venezuelan assets and refining margin gains translate into sustainable cash flow for Chevron, and whether Exxon’s downstream performance can offset…