This Crude Refiner Has Beaten Every Magnificent Seven Stock in the Last 2 Years
Key takeaways
- Valero’s 203% two‑year gain shows commodity scarcity can outpace tech growth when geopolitical shocks tighten supply.
- Valero share price: $415.45 (Sept. 18, 2026)
- Valero 2‑year return: +203.8%
- Diesel margin: $104 per barrel
What happened
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) surged 203.8% over the past two years, outpacing every Magnificent Seven tech stock, with its share price climbing from $136.66 on Sept. 18, 2024 to $415.45 on Sept. 18, 2026. The rally is driven by a record‑wide crack spread as crude and refined‑product markets tighten after the Strait of Hormuz closure, pushing diesel margins to about $104 per barrel and a blended 3‑2‑1 margin near $61. Valero’s Q2 2026 results showed revenue of $44.48 billion (+48.8% YoY) and…
Why it matters
The refinery’s performance illustrates how supply shocks can create a scarcity trade that outpaces high‑growth tech names. Valero’s margin expansion and cash‑flow generation have lifted its valuation to 17.2× trailing earnings, well above the consensus target of $283. The company’s recent analyst upgrades and strong…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Short‑term traders should watch the crack spread and diesel futures; a widening spread could lift VLO’s price further.
Longer-term. Over the next 12–18 months, Valero’s cash‑flow strength and dividend yield of 1.16% support a hold thesis.