Americans Stop Moving as Mortgage Lock-In Persists: Home Depot Sees 'No Sign' of Housing Turnaround
Key takeaways
- High mortgage rates are locking homeowners in, stalling the housing market and keeping Home Depot’s growth muted.
- 13.5% probability of moving in next 12 months
- Half of mortgages <4% rate
- Two‑thirds of mortgages <5% rate
What happened
The probability that a U.S. homeowner will move in the next 12 months has dropped to a record‑low 13.5%, driven by high mortgage rates that lock people into cheap loans. Apollo’s latest housing outlook shows roughly half of all mortgages carry rates below 4% and two‑thirds below 5%, while a new 30‑year mortgage costs about 6.7%. Existing‑home sales in July were 4.06 million, 1.2 million below the pre‑pandemic average, and active buyers fell to a record‑low 967,000, leaving sellers outnumbering…
Why it matters
The lock‑in effect explains 44% of the decline in homeowner mobility between 2021 and 2022, meaning fewer people are moving and fewer homes are selling. This dampens demand for home‑related goods, directly impacting retailers like Home Depot that depend on renovation spending. With the 10‑year Treasury yield at its…
Short-term and longer-term
Short-term. Short‑term traders should watch Home Depot’s (HD) customer transaction trend and the 10‑year Treasury yield.
Longer-term. Over the next few months, Home Depot’s growth will likely remain constrained by the persistent housing slowdown.